The Bank of Canada today announced that it is maintaining its target for the overnight rate at 1 per cent. The Bank Rate is correspondingly 1 1/4 per cent and the deposit rate is 3/4 per cent.
The global economy continues to expand broadly as expected, but its dynamic has moderated. In the United States, the process of normalization of long-term interest rates has begun in the context of stronger private domestic demand. Recent data, however, point to slightly less momentum overall than anticipated. In Europe, there are early signs of a recovery, and Japan’s situation remains promising. In a number of emerging market economies, financial volatility has increased, adding uncertainty to growth prospects, although China continues to grow at a solid pace. Commodity prices have been relatively stable, with geopolitical stresses putting some upward pressure on global oil prices.
Uncertain global economic conditions appear to be delaying the anticipated rotation of demand in Canada towards exports and investment. While the housing sector has been slightly stronger than anticipated, household credit growth has continued to slow and mortgage interest rates are higher, pointing to a continued constructive evolution of household imbalances. Looking through the choppiness of the recent data, the level of Canada’s GDP is largely consistent with the Bank’s July forecast. The output gap is expected to begin to narrow in 2014.